The second crypto winter is upon us as the whole sector essentially collapsed over the summer wiping out billions of retail speculative capital. That thesis is holding true and only a vicious 2nd wave of price hikes in the real economy will revive the barbaric relic.Ĭats have nine lives, but crypto may only have three. For now however gold is dead money in more ways than one and unless it can recapture and hold the $2000/oz mark there is no evidence that gold is anything but a range bound market.” If the 1970s is the analogue then inflation is just starting to permeate the mass consciousness and the true gold mania in the 1970s did not hit its apex until the end of the decade, so the speculative cycle may still be ahead.
Perhaps the only positive thing to say about gold is that it appears to have carved at double bottom at the $1680 level as the last of the intermediate term longs capitulated. Gold of course does not really act as inflation hedge but rather as a response to real rates and as real rates have risen in reaction to Fed’s commitment to monetary tightening the yellow metal continued to lose its luster in July. With gold there is not even any need for incantations because the asset has been a dog since the start of the year, collapsing as fast as inflation has been rising and essentially destroying the thesis that gold is an inflation hedge. Most likely that will also be the equilibrium point for the time being unless global growth slows materially into the final quarter of the year.ĭead money. With crude now below the $100 level the next point of attention for shorts will be the $85-$95 zone of support which served as the breakout point just before the Russia-Ukraine war. All this suggests that demand for oil is likely to remain capped while global supply - driven by Russia’s ever more desperate need for cash - will remain steady or increase. The latest Chinese PMI data is within a stone’s throw of the 50 boom/bust level indicating that manufacturing activity continues to slow. This is clearly not the case as the Chinese economic slowdown is structurally driven by collapse in demand and credit in real estate which comprises as much as 35% of Chinese GDP. The original argument was that the slowdown in China was all COVID related and would come roaring back as soon the restrictions were lifted. One key factor is the dampening of demand from China. Gasoline prices have fallen for seven straight weeks at the fastest pace in decades as crude now tumbles below the psychologically key $100 bbl mark much to the consternation of oil perma bulls. For now however the key support levels in NASDAQ have held and the path of least resistance is up. All of this of course depends on easing rather than tightening of geopolitical tensions and that could be a false assumption if China decides that it cannot lose face and raises stakes in the Asia Pacific.
That could be a constructive background for equities especially if corporations retain their pricing power. Given that this is a nearly universal view it is almost certainly wrong and that suggests that markets are underpricing the prospect of a fall rally even if it eventually turns out to just be a short squeeze in an overall bear market.Īs the global economic engine returns to normal the supply chain bottlenecks continue to ease putting downward pressure on prices which in turn should temper monetary policy going forward. The consensus view is that a soft landing is almost impossible given the high level of inflation and that only a severe recession can cure what ails us. And despite the Speaker of the House trying to light a match at the dynamite factory by visiting Taiwan we suspect it will all be much ado about nothing as volatility in equities continues to compress and traders minds wander to the beaches of Hamptons and St.Tropez before engaging with the markets once again.Īugust can of course be stormy month - the Russian default happened in August plunging bonds markets into a tizzy while making a short meal out of Long Term Capital, but overall the last true month of summer tends to be a quiet time for equities and this year we don’t think it will be any different, unless China decides to double down on its threats and attacks Taiwan.Įven then it's not entirely clear how equities will react to such geo-political risk, but assuming cooler heads prevail equities are likely to be a snoozefest as all the stories are pretty much priced in and the only real question is how slow the economy will get.